This week while revisiting some mid-20th century papers I was reminded of one paper that prompted much of the direction for my thesis, J.C.R. Licklider’s 1960 ‘Man-Computer Symbiosis’. (let us ignore the inherit sexism in the term for now).
While I have adopted this paper into my theoretical framework, it is not symbiotic theory alone that fascinated me in this paper, nor is it the topic of today’s post instead, it was the remarkably accurate vision of the future presented by Licklider (1960).
At the time of its publishing (1960), computers were moving from their infancy into in their toddler stage; sizeable, expensive, electronic mechanised toddlers (quite an image). It was widely acknowledged that they were far from accessible to all, and for those who could access them, they may not have been the solution to the problems faced (Matz, 1946; Carlson, 1957; Schireson, 1957). Computers were limited in number and the ‘internet’ was a communication system that would be confined to walls of a company (more akin to a modern day intranet).
However, many could see the potential. There was a possibility for these ‘clunky toddlers’ to be useful, they just had to do some ‘maturing’ and developing. For Licklider (1960) this development would comprise several steps and innovations. And this where the crystal ball sprung to life…
- The ‘World Wide Web’ a.k.a. the ‘Internet’
As noted, the internet existed far earlier than the 1990s, it was just in a far more limited form from the internet we recognise today. For Licklider (1960, p. 5) this would have to improve:
“The picture readily enlarges itself into a network of such centers, connected to one another by wide-band communication lines and to individual users by leased wire services. In such a system, the speed of the computers would be balanced, and the cost of the gigantic memories and the sophisticated programs would be divided by the number of users.”
This (in my limited technical knowledge) is an accurate description of the modern internet. For computers to attain their potential, they would have to master the pivotal skill of humanity, communication. Computers would need to find a way to enhance human communication by allowing and adopting a new method in which humans could communicate and share the growing stores of data and information they were gathering. What better way than to find a method to connect numerous computers together. Interestingly as a further note, it was Licklider’s popularisation of the concept of the “Interglactic Network” that would inspire scientists to develop the first practical iterations of the internet (Andrews, 2013).
In the reference to memory, Licklider (1960) may even have added the ‘cloud’ into this prediction by citing this network could be utilised to enhance memory (the information/data storage capability of the computers).
2. Nostalgia and online services
“The first thing to face is that we shall not store all the technical and scientific papers in computer memory. We may store the parts that can be summarized most succinctly-the quantitative parts and the reference citations-but not the whole. Books are among the most beautifully engineered, and human-engineered, components in existence, and they will continue to be functionally important within the context of man computer symbiosis. (Hopefully, the computer will expedite the finding, delivering, and returning of books.)” (Licklider, 1960, p. 5)
While it is uncertain to say definitively that have books maintained their importance as a storage medium, Licklider (1960) does portray the connection and ‘hold’ that books embody. Technology has far surpassed the need for books but, the above sentiment on their importance overall does appear to hold strong throughout 21st century society. More interesting is the follow up statement by Licklider (1960), the dream (rather than prediction) that one day computers will provide a medium to better connect us to books. Again this falls into the domain of the internet however, this is a specific vision regarding the services and purposes that a connected computer network could provide. Furthermore, the paragraph goes on to describe the possibilities for external storage devices, noting that throughout time the data tape will evolve to fit within smaller units and adapt to take on new materials and innovations that will create larger storage capacity within smaller products. An obvious prediction perhaps, but an accurate telling of the evolution from the cassette to the usb key.
3. The tablet and stylus
“Nowhere, to my knowledge, however, is there anything approaching the flexibility and convenience of the pencil and doodle pad or the chalk and blackboard used by men in technical discussion.”
Again arguably a dream rather than a prediction but in the above observation Licklider (1960, p. 7) quite accurately stumbles upon one of this centuries most influential technologies, mobile devices. For many artists, the tablet and stylus has opened a world of possibility in digital art, a device with the ability to create, store and share entire collections of work to anywhere in the world. Further, in this statement there is a suggestion linking to the need for computers to ‘shrink’ to further enhance their usefulness, with the (again a perhaps obvious) notion that a handheld device would be far more accessible than one that occupies an entire room within a building.
4. Touchscreen technology and digital display
“The man should be able to present a function to the computer, in a rough but rapid fashion, by drawing a graph. The computer should read the man’s writing, perhaps on the condition that it be in clear block capitals, and it should immediately post, at the location of each hand-drawn symbol, the corresponding character as interpreted and put into precise type-face.”
Following on from the notion of the tablet and stylus, Licklider (1960, p. 7) points to another commonplace technology of the modern era, digital interactive displays. Noting here the benefit that such an innovation would provide to collaborative working, Licklider (1960) foresees a scenario where ideas and work can be translated instantaneously and displayed in various formats. Furthermore, they equally foresee that technology will have limitations at all stages, noting the need for clearly recognisable characters/representations to allow smooth translation. However, the recognition that part of the computers potential will be in its collaborative and interactive functions is something that has become central to many modern working practices.
5. Virtual Assistants
The final and closing notion explored by Licklider (1960, p. 9) is speech recognition software:
“…not a few workers have the feeling that sophisticated computer programs will be able to perform well as speech-pattern recognizes even without the aid of much substantive knowledge of speech signals and processes.”
There are two interesting points here, the first being that in the sentences preceding the above statement in the paper, it is noted that this particular innovation was thought to be possible in the near future (i.e., 1970s-80s) although, this would be in the form of automated typing from speech, not human to machine interaction. The second point is thus that this appears to be one area where the vision has shown to be more restrained than the reality. Where in other examples Licklider (1960) presents a reasonably accurate vision or description, they do not extend this particular thought to include the idea of speaking with a computer, only to it. While our current virtual assistants may not hold fully engaged conversational abilities, the growth and development of chat AI-driven functions is increasing (consider Chat GPT). Furthermore, it is again important to note the subtle suggestion to the internet again in this vision. The computer itself does not have to posses the knowledge in itself to understand, it can consult a database elsewhere to interpret the input information.
On reflection…
Looking at the above is another reason that history is a truly fascinating subject. In this paper we have a window to the past, a view of someone trying to imagine a future that they knew little to nothing about. Yet, by analysing what was present in that moment and picturing how it could be made better, Licklider (1960) quite accurately “predicts” some of todays most recognisable innovations and how we might use them. It exposes the modern reader to a reality that undoes the more negative or dismissive views of history (i.e., all they did was predict flying cars and robot maids although, what else would you call a Roomba?), and shows us the benefits to be gained from calculated analysis and thought as a means of forecasting future possibilities. This paper was not intended to be Nostradamus-esque trip into computing, it was a guide of how to prepare for the future in the wake of new technology. I only wish Licklider could have had the opportunity to read back their paper on a tablet and smile (they died in 1990)…
References
Andrews, E. (2013) Who Invented the Internet? Available at: https://www.history.com/news/who-invented-the-internet#:~:text=The%20first%20workable%20prototype%20of,communicate%20on%20a%20single%20network. (Accessed: 2nd Mar 2023).
Carlson, A.E. (1957) ‘Automation in Accounting Systems’, The Accounting Review, 32(2), pp. 224-228.
Licklider, J.C.R. (1960) ‘Man-Computer Symbiosis’, IRE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, 1, pp. 4-11.
Matz, A. (1946) ‘Electronics in Accounting’, The Accounting Review, 21(4), pp. 371-379.
Schireson, B. (1957) ‘Towards a New Accounting’, The Accounting Review, 32(2), pp. 253-257.
Accounting for Humanity 
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